Mar
30
2010
MUMBAI : Continuous flow of foreign funds into the stock market, the growing strength of the Indian economy and the sudden weakness of the US dollar against other major currencies in the last two days helped the Indian reupee to strengthen against the green back to over 45-level on Monday. As a result of huge FII inflows, sensex too ralled and on Monday touched a 25 month high at 17,793.
The partially convertible rupee hit a high at 44.94 to the dollar and ended at 44.96, an 18-month high, It gained 0.6%, or 28 paise from its Friday close at 45.23 Based on FII inflows and the future prospects of the economy, top bankers and analysts feel there is high chance that the Indian currency could strengthen further from these levels.
So far this month, FIIs have pumped in nearly $4 billion into indian equities, which is the second highest monthly net flow ever, Sebi data showed. Despite a large number of domestic fund mangers feeling that most of the quality stocks are fully valued at the current levels, FII fund managers have been pouring money into India. Such dollar inflows helped the rupee to strengthen.
“The Indian economy has been growing at a healthier rate relative to other economies and indian finacial market has been deep and liquid. This has resulted in robust inflow of foreign capital into the country. In turn, this has led to appreciation of the rupee,” said NS Kannan, ED&CFO, ICICI Bank, Top bankers now feel the trend to continue, helping the rupee to rise further from the sub-45 levels. Forex analysts also feel that over the last few monhs, rupee has emerged to be a stronger currency.
A few days ago, the dollar was strengthening against other currencies but rupee did not weaken against the dollar, pointed out Jamal Mecklai, CEO. Meckial Financial services.
“This shows that the rupee is a stronger currency now,” Meckial, a forex risk consultant, said However, he warned that 45 was just a number. a psychologically important level, and so the market should not be excited about it. “There is not much difference between (the RE-dollar rate of) 44.95 and 45.05.
Based on the strength of the Indian currency, stocks of big exporters were hammered on the bourses Among the frontline stocks, Infosys Technologies ended 22% lower at RS 2,716 while TCS ended 1.7% off at Rs 811. However, the key for such exporters is to manage the forex risks, forex analysts said.