INDIAN RE TO TOUCH 40 A DOLLAR
Foreign institutional investors pumped in $1.72 billion into debt instruments and $1.38 billion in equity flows: total FII investments adding up to $3.10 billion between january 4 and 19, 2010 As a result , the rupee has already appreciaded by around 1.28 per cent against the US dollar during the first three weeks of the year. Going by the inflows coming into the country, the Indian rupee is expected to touch 40 to the dollar by end-December or early next year.
FII investment in the debt instruments had gone up, as they are trying to take advantage of the higher interest rate regime in the Indian market, compared with those prevailing the developed countries, facing severe economic slowdown.
The sharpest increase has been seen against the euro The rupee is at a 15-month high, The huge flows in debt is one point the RBI would factor in while taking decision on rates. Any increase in the rates could trigger a further inflow of foreign funds into the debt market.
SENSEX TARGET OF 18000 IN 2010
A survey by Mumbai -based investment and brokerage firm, J.M. Financial Services, shows 45 per cent of fund managers expect the Sensex to consolidate in to first quarter of calendar year 2010 and rise in the remaining three quarters. The money flowing in is likely to come from domestic and foreign institutional investors (FIIs). But insurance money could also be a big driver for the next rally. so, the Sensex could move in a narrow band in the calendar year 2010., with an upward target of 18,000 According to a survey of fund managers, Nifty forward PE would remain high at 14-16 times FY 10 valuations.
GOLD PRICES UP BY 25 PC IN 2009
Gold price rose for the ninth consecutive year in 2009 to end at $ 1,087 an ounce as against $ 869 an ounce at the end of 2008 or by as much as 25 per cent. Investment flows, dollar hedging protection and buying by Central banks propelled the yellow metal to successive new highs.
Gold prices may continue to rise this year due to persistent threast over financial recovery of the developed economies and concerns over the inflation. Investment in gold is considered as a safe hedge against inflation.
According to the superfund-a global -managed futures fund trading in 120 commodity and financial basis -gold should trade at $ 2,000 an ounce and will double in rupee terms over the next 3-5 years due to global inflation and potential for hyper inflation in industrial, high-debt countries.
Silver will have more volatility than gold; but the upside potential is higher. Gold to silver ratio is very high over the past 5,000 years, the ratio was 15.1 but now it is more than 60. This is expected to correct. silver should be trading at $ 60 per ounce. But it will not be a surprise if it hits $ 70-80 in the next 3-5 years.
CORE SECTOR GROWS BY 6 PC IN DEC ‘09
Core sector grew to a four-month high of 6 per cent in December 2009 as against 0.7 per cent a year ago on the back of robust growth in crude oil (1.1 per cent as against minus 0.3 per cent last year), electricity (5.4 per cent against 1.5 per cent) and finished steel production (9.6 per cent against minus 8 per cent).
The core sector performance in December 2009 was even better than the 5.3 per cent clocked in November 2009 and suggests that the industrial growth could improve from 11.7 per cent in November 2009. While all six sectors registered a positive growth, the growth in petroleum, coal and steel was lower than the previous month.
The core sector registered a 4.8 per cent growth during the first nine months (April-December) of 2009-10 compared with 3.2 per cent in the corresponding last year, as per the data released by the Ministry of Commerce last week.
Despite the core sector performing well, economic growth may come in lower than expected because of low farm sector production, The third quarter GDP growth would be in the range of 6 per cent of 6.5 per cent. The economy had grown by 7.9 per cent in the second quarter (July -September) of 2009-10, and raised the expectation of a near 8 per cent growth in the current fiscal.
The higher core sector data comes at a time when the centre is mulling an exit the stimulus measures it announced after the global financial crisis hit growth. According to the Chief Economic Advisor, Mr Kaushik Basu, India is likely to return to the 9 per cent growth rate trajectory by the end of the next financial year (2010-11
FOREX RESERVES UP BY $ 899 MILLION
India’s foreign exchange reserves increased by $ 899 million to $ 285,161 million during the week ended january 15,2010, according to the Reserve Bank of India Bulletin; Weekly Statistical Supplement.
Foreign currency assets of India surged by $ 853 million to $ 2,60,259 million ; SD Rs b $ 36 million to $ 5,181 million. Gold reserves during the week under review remained at the previous week’s level of $ 18,292 million.
FOOD INFLATION EASED TO 16.8PC
Annual food inflation, based on the wholesale price index (WPI) eased marginally to 16.81 per cent for the week ended in january 9,2010, even as price rise in items such as potato and pulses continued to remain high. Food inflation for the previous reported week was recorded at 17.28 per cent on a year-on year basis. It was at 11.59 per cent during the corresponding week last year .
In December 2009 food inflation had reached 20 per cent, the highest in a decade.
SENSEX SNAPS FOUR-WEEK WINNING STREAK
The BSE benchmark Sensex snapped its four-week winning streak and dropped by 695 points last week to close below the psychological 17,000-mark on all-round selling pressure, following disappointment from key corporate earnings amid a weak trend in the global markets. global stocks tumbled after the US president Barack Obama proposed new restrictions on banks, which would prevent bank /financial institutions from investing in, owning or sponsoring a hedge fund or private equity fund, Golbal markets had alreday recoiled in recent weeks on fear that demand from China would slow down as Beijing taps the brakes on its roaring growth to stave-off inflation and to keep the economy from over-heating.